by Paulo | 12 diciembre 2014 1:27 pm
Alicia Villegas
A Peruvian conglomerate, Tasa is the country’s second largest fishmeal producer and exporter.
The latest report by Peru’s marine institute Imarpe, which re-iterated its advice to suspend fishing for this year’s second anchovy season, told of the “negative impacts of the current oceanographic conditions over anchovy”, linked to a “moderate” El Nino weather phenomenon.
The report showed that the anchovy stock is reduced, with very low densities in the northern region, which is the main area of fishing for anchovy.
This low density is linked to high presence of juveniles — 94% in terms of weight and 84% in number of individuals, said the report, seen by Undercurrent.
The ‘Eureka’ fishing expedition, which also involved the private sector, found the main size for anchovy was 9.5 cm. This corresponds to fish of just six months in age approximately, born in the summer 2014.
However, producers canvassed by Undercurrent believe the poor stock situation, which has sent fishmeal prices soaring while stocks in China and Peru are running low, is shortlived.
“New data released and findings on sizes indicate that complete normalization of anchovy stock will take place in October next year, although we don’t know about the volumes,” Tasa’s Speziani said.
Anchovy juveniles were dispersed in the Peruvian coast surveyed during Nov. 19-23, from Talara to Punta San Juan, according to Imarpe’s report.
“The report means that there is anchovy, but juveniles, and these are dispersed, so we must wait for these to grow,” Exalmar CFO Raul Briceno told Undercurrent.
“By April or May next year there will be enough volume for fishing and we will fish,” said Briceno.
Both directors therefore ruled out a zero quota scenario for the first season of 2015, usually running from May to July. But the big question mark is how much quota will be set.
According to Briceno, current climatic conditions are reminiscent of 2010, when the second anchovy quota was set at 2.1 million metric tons, but only 700,000t were caught.
Then, for the first season of 2011, Peruvian authorities set a sizeable total allowable catch (TAC) of 3.6m metric tons.
The reason behind the low catches in the second season of 2010 had nothing to do with lack of biomass. Instead, it was linked to anchovy migration caused by changing sea conditions, Briceno told Undercurrent previously.
Briceno said the first anchovy season of 2015 could see a similar situation, since, after a comeback of normal sea conditions, the anchovy will clump together again and the biomass will improve.
Speziani echoed this.
“We are assured that the industry will recover in 2015,” said the Tasa director.
“Of course, the [fishmeal] industry is worried, there is some concern, but Eureka’s cruise report has allowed us to calm down, because the first Imarpe report was indeed worrying,” Speziani said.
In its survey in October, Imarpe estimated the anchovy biomass in the north-center region of Peru at just 1.45m metric tons. That compares to an estimated 10.8 to 12.1m metric tons in its spring 2013 survey.
Tough 2015 for Peruvian players
Peruvian fishmeal players will see a relatively fine 2014, as the impact of the second season will be reflected in companies’ 2015 earnings — the second season’s catches are usually sold almost entirely in the following year.
“This year will see small profits and results for the next year will depend on the quota set for the first season of 2015,” Speziani said.
Briceno, for its part, said 2015 could have similar results to 2013.
A tough 2012 second season — when quota was slashed to 810,000t – led to high losses in 2013.
“It’s a huge concern for the companies. We will have a very difficult time,” a Peruvian manager told Undercurrent back in October, when Imarpe first advised to hold on fishing for the second anchovy season until more results could come out.
Ministry’s upcoming decision
Peru’s ministry of production, Produce, is expected to follow Imarpe’s advice as it issues its total allowable catch recommendation for the second fishing season — which normally takes place from November to January every year.
Produce’s decision will follow the release of a second report from Imarpe by next week, Speziani said.
The first report based on the ‘Eureka’ fishing expedition, is a partial study from Imarpe. The second report, including more scientific information, will be the complete version but “in the same line that the first one,” Speziani said.
“When the complete report is out, the ministry will take a decision,” he said.
Peru’s anchovy TAC, 2011-2014, in metric tons:
First season 2011: 3.675m
Second season 2011: 2.5m
Total 2011: 6.175m
First season 2012: 2.75m
Second season 2012: 810,000
Total 2012: 3.56m
First season 2013: 2.05m
Second season 2013: 2.3m
Total 2013: 4.35m
First season 2014: 2.53m (only 1.71m caught)
Second season 2014: zero
Total 2014: 2.53m
Source URL: https://www.sonapesca.cl/fishmeal-players-expect-peru-anchovy-recovery-by-first-season-of-2015/
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